LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Heretics - Game 1 Winner

● quote 6 min ago

Sports→Closes: about 1 hourLiquidity: $552.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $430.4KEvent: LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Heretics (BO3) - LEC Regular Season

100.0¢

YES

0.1¢

Spread

anomaly15Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets99Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 69%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot

24h sample:84 trades$60.4K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 14%BUY/SELL known 100%

tape 34 min agoofficial metadata 7 min ago

Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$25.5K·4 wallets(1🐋)·$25.8K gross

Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYKarmine Corp (YES)$14.0K@ 99¢·5e46h

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN

What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

−$268

+$16.5K

tracked

$60.4K

4 verified profitable wallets: +$25.5K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?

0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 69% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence

•Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
•Executable quote is 6 minutes old.
•Observed tape is 34 minutes old.
•Less than 1h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution

resolving

Trading

Orders accepted

Deadline

2026-08-03 21:15 UTC

Event constraint

Not verified

Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL match between Karmine Corp and Team Heretics in the LEC Regular Season, initially scheduled for August 3 at 1:15PM ET. This market will resolve to "Karmine Corp" if Karmine Corp win Game 1 against Team Heretics. This market will resolve to "Team Heretics" if Team Heretics win Game 1 against Karmine Corp. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow

0xf201…527e2 linked markets · $2.7K gross

0x10ef…7d7b3 linked markets · $2.2K gross

0x9e3e…f8822 linked markets · $954 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Latest book event: NO DOWN 6.9pp · near-book depth $176 → $5 · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes

Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.

1h−$268

6h+$16.5K

24h+$16.5K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.

Current100.0¢

VWAP 24h97.5¢▲ above by 2.5pp

VWAP 7d97.5¢

Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢

← now

$53.4K

90¢

$2.6K

85¢

$1.1K

80¢

$3.4K