LoL: SK Gaming vs G2 Esports - Game 1 Winner

● quote 71 min ago
Sports→Closes: about 1 hourLiquidity: $297.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $691.4KEvent: LoL: SK Gaming vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Regular Season
0.1¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly10Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets98Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 54%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:104 trades$97.9K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 14%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 101 min agoofficial metadata 72 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $80.7K·3 wallets(2🐋)·$82.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYG2 Esports (NO)$42.8K@ 81¢·0x2c33…0563

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$294
6h
−$89.4K
tracked
$97.9K

3 verified profitable wallets: −$80.7K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 54% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -90.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 71 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 101 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 72 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-02 19:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL match between SK Gaming and G2 Esports in the LEC Regular Season, initially scheduled for August 2 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "SK Gaming" if SK Gaming win Game 1 against G2 Esports. This market will resolve to "G2 Esports" if G2 Esports win Game 1 against SK Gaming. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x9348…66642 linked markets · $1.7K gross
0xc69b…20763 linked markets · $1.5K gross
0x0e91…ea342 linked markets · $1.2K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY G2 Esports4h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY G2 Esports@ 90.0¢4h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: NO DOWN 4.8pp · near-book depth $214 → $23 · 19s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$294
6h−$89.4K
24h−$89.4K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h18.7¢▼ below by 18.6pp
VWAP 7d18.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$18.0K
20¢
$0
15¢
$76.4K
10¢
$683
5¢
$79
0¢
← now
$2.8K

VPOC = 15¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYG2 Esports (NO)$18.0K@ 75.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 5 hours ago
BUYG2 Esports (NO)$42.8K@ 81.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 5 hours ago
BUYG2 Esports (NO)$20.9K@ 83.5¢
SineNooneEI0x3833…33d1
🐋—about 5 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x2c33…0563G2 Esports$60.8K
BUY VWAP 79.1¢·2 fills
SineNooneEIG2 Esports$20.9K
BUY VWAP 83.5¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.