Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs OG - Game 1 Winner

● quote 76 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $235.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $438.2KEvent: Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs OG - More Markets
99.9¢
YES
1.0¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection3Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 69%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:140 trades$74.0K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 17%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 99 min agoofficial metadata 80 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLVici Gaming (YES)$27.8K@ 100¢·0x4aec…4ce9

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$2.5K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$2.5K
6h
−$18.5K
tracked
$74.0K

1 verified profitable wallet: +$16.1K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 69% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 76 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 99 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 80 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-02 22:40 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 match between Vici Gaming and OG in the 1win Essence Group B, initially scheduled for August 2 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Vici Gaming" if Vici Gaming win Game 1 against OG. This market will resolve to "OG" if OG win Game 1 against Vici Gaming. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x4aec…4ce92 linked markets · $27.8K gross
0xf3ce…a57a2 linked markets · $7.5K gross
0xe59f…0d082 linked markets · $5.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: YES UP 7.5pp · near-book depth $43 → $557 · 3s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$2.5K
6h−$18.5K
24h−$18.5K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h71.7¢▲ above by 28.2pp
VWAP 7d71.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$32.5K
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$240
75¢
$649
70¢
$5
65¢
$1.1K
60¢
$2.1K
55¢
$678
50¢
$24.7K
45¢
$100
40¢
$3.3K
35¢
$1.6K
30¢
$4.6K
25¢
$1.8K
20¢
$82
15¢
$608
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLVici Gaming (YES)$27.8K@ 99.9¢0x4aec…4ce9🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYVici Gaming (YES)$16.1K@ 54.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 3 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs OG - Game 2 Winner
49.0¢$249.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x2c33…0563Vici Gaming$16.1K
BUY VWAP 54.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.