Valorant: Evil Geniuses vs MIBR (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Alpha

● quote 1058 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: about 15 hoursLiquidity: $131.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $251.6KEvent: Valorant: Evil Geniuses vs MIBR (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Alpha
0.1¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 55%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:83 trades$5.4K trackedsource coverage 22%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 1166 min agoofficial metadata 1059 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $31.4K·2 wallets(1🐋)·$31.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMIBR (NO)$31.3K@ 80¢·0x2c33…0563

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$2.0K
tracked
$5.4K

2 verified profitable wallets: −$31.4K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 55% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 1058 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 1166 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 1059 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-01 06:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://vlr.gg
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Valorant match between Evil Geniuses and MIBR in the VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Alpha, initially scheduled for July 31 at 8:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Evil Geniuses" if Evil Geniuses win the match against MIBR. This market will resolve to "MIBR" if MIBR win the match against Evil Geniuses. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://vlr.gg. However, if https://vlr.gg has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x86df…d9022 linked markets · $2.2K gross
0xe907…cff62 linked markets · $163 gross
0xfdc0…4b852 linked markets · $161 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

DEADLINE POSITIONINGBUY MIBR@ 81.0¢1d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -2.0pp24h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY MIBR@ 81.0¢1d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -2.0pp24h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY MIBR@ 81.0¢1d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -2.0pp24h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: NO UP 4.0pp · near-book depth $739$735 · 3s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$0
6h+$2.0K
24h$49.2K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h19.8¢▼ below by 19.7pp
VWAP 7d19.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$207
45¢
$552
40¢
$25
35¢
$164
30¢
$0
25¢
$53
20¢
$51.9K
15¢
$119
10¢
$1.0K
5¢
$11
0¢
← now
$1.3K

VPOC = 20¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYMIBR (NO)$31.3K@ 80.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋1 day ago
BUYMIBR (NO)$18.6K@ 80.0¢0x7e5e…7315🐋1 day ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x2c33…0563MIBR$31.3K
BUY VWAP 80.0¢·1 fill
0x7e5e…7315MIBR$18.6K
BUY VWAP 80.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.