UFC Fight Night: Bruno Lopes vs. Diyar Nurgozhay (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)

● quote 771 min ago
Sports→Closes: about 9 hoursLiquidity: $110.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $306.0KEvent: UFC Fight Night: Bruno Lopes vs. Diyar Nurgozhay (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)
0.1¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly40Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection47Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 72%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:26 trades$87.8K tracked12% 🐋source coverage 29%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 788 min agoofficial metadata 771 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $64.1K·4 wallets(1🐋)·$64.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYDiyar Nurgozhay (NO)$30.0K@ 60¢·ferrariChampions2026

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — MARKET STATUS RISK
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$41.2K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$41.2K
6h
−$41.2K
tracked
$87.8K

4 verified profitable wallets: −$64.1K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 72% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 771 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 788 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 771 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-08-09 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Bruno Lopes" if Bruno Lopes is officially declared the winner of the fight against Diyar Nurgozhay at UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld, scheduled for August 8, 2026. It will resolve to "Diyar Nurgozhay" if Diyar Nurgozhay is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 22, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 13h ago
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 13h ago

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

DEADLINE POSITIONINGBUY Diyar Nurgozhay@ 77.0¢13h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Diyar Nurgozhay@ 77.0¢13h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Bruno Lopes@ 24.0¢13h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$41.2K
6h−$41.2K
24h−$41.2K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h38.5¢▼ below by 38.4pp
VWAP 7d38.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$57.2K
35¢
$27.6K
30¢
$0
25¢
$303
20¢
$7
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$2.7K

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYDiyar Nurgozhay (NO)$15.3K@ 61.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 13 hours ago
BUYBruno Lopes (YES)$14.4K@ 40.0¢0xa9b9…dd41🐋—about 14 hours ago
BUYDiyar Nurgozhay (NO)$30.0K@ 60.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 14 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ferrariChampions2026Diyar Nurgozhay$45.3K
BUY VWAP 60.3¢·2 fills
0xa9b9…dd41Bruno Lopes$20.3K
BUY VWAP 40.3¢·2 fills
sleepy-pandaDiyar Nurgozhay$12.1K
BUY VWAP 60.5¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.