The Memphis Classic, Qualification: Yexin Ma vs Aoi Ito

● quote 22 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $70.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $181.5KEvent: The Memphis Classic, Qualification: Yexin Ma vs Aoi Ito
35.5¢
YES
64.5¢
NO
5.0¢
Spread
anomaly28Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection2Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution53Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 28%
24h sample:52 trades$9.2K trackedsource coverage 5%BUY/SELL known 54%
tape 79 min agoofficial metadata 23 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLYexin Ma (YES)$4.2K@ 53¢·0x1f71…b2e4

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$75
6h
−$4.5K
tracked
$9.2K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
5.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 28% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • BUY/SELL is known for 54% of tracked volume.
  • Executable quote is 22 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 79 minutes old.
  • Spread is 5.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-02 16:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Yexin Ma and Aoi Ito in the The Memphis Classic, Qualification, originally scheduled for July 26, 2026 at 12:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Yexin Ma' if Yexin Ma advances against Aoi Ito. This market will resolve to 'Aoi Ito' if Aoi Ito advances against Yexin Ma. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: NO UP 4.5pp · near-book depth $25.1K$40.7K · 9s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$75
6h$4.5K
24h$4.5K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current35.5¢
VWAP 24h54.0¢▼ below by 18.6pp
VWAP 7d54.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$507
60¢
$17
55¢
$42
50¢
$4.3K
45¢
$0
40¢
$5
35¢
← now
$86
30¢
$12
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity