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Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex Michelsen vs Jack Draper

● quote 58 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $163.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $113.6KEvent: Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex Michelsen vs Jack Draper
50.0¢
YES
51.0¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly40Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection97Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 73%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:6 trades$37.0K tracked50% 🐋source coverage 33%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 77 min agoofficial metadata 58 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAlex Michelsen (YES)$14.4K@ 44¢·0x4c8f…0942

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$36.1K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$36.1K
6h
+$36.1K
tracked
$37.0K

1 verified profitable wallet: −$30 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 73% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 58 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 77 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 58 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-03 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Alex Michelsen and Jack Draper in the Mubadala Citi DC Open, originally scheduled for July 27, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alex Michelsen' if Alex Michelsen advances against Jack Draper. This market will resolve to 'Jack Draper' if Jack Draper advances against Alex Michelsen. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$36.1K
6h+$36.1K
24h+$36.1K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current50.0¢
VWAP 24h43.9¢▲ above by 6.1pp
VWAP 7d43.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
← now
$0
45¢
$10.5K
40¢
$26.5K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYAlex Michelsen (YES)$10.1K@ 45.6¢0xd8b4…7773🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYAlex Michelsen (YES)$14.4K@ 43.7¢0x4c8f…0942🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYAlex Michelsen (YES)$12.1K@ 42.4¢0x88b5…a041🐋—about 2 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x4c8f…0942Alex Michelsen$14.4K
BUY VWAP 43.7¢·1 fill
0x88b5…a041Alex Michelsen$12.1K
BUY VWAP 42.4¢·1 fill
0xd8b4…7773Alex Michelsen$10.1K
BUY VWAP 45.6¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.