Estoril Open: Luca Van Assche vs Alexander Blockx

● quote 102 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $293.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.3MEvent: Estoril Open: Luca Van Assche vs Alexander Blockx
80.5¢
YES
19.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection8Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets78Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution86Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority60Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 54%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:226 trades$62.8K trackedsource coverage 5%BUY/SELL known 76%
tape 109 min agoofficial metadata 104 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$10.0K·3 wallets·$12.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYLuca Van Assche (YES)$9.8K@ 42¢·0x5f65…2036

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$4.0K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$4.0K
6h
+$22.2K
tracked
$62.8K

3 verified profitable wallets: +$10.0K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 54% · priority 60

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • BUY/SELL is known for 76% of tracked volume.
  • Executable quote is 102 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 109 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 104 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-02 16:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Luca Van Assche and Alexander Blockx in the Estoril Open, originally scheduled for July 26, 2026 at 12:30PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Luca Van Assche' if Luca Van Assche advances against Alexander Blockx. This market will resolve to 'Alexander Blockx' if Alexander Blockx advances against Luca Van Assche. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: YES UP 2.5pp · near-book depth $18.0K$9.8K · 12s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$4.0K
6h+$22.2K
24h+$16.4K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current80.5¢
VWAP 24h57.7¢▲ above by 22.8pp
VWAP 7d57.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$8.1K
80¢
← now
$1.9K
75¢
$54
70¢
$846
65¢
$5.7K
60¢
$2.3K
55¢
$1.1K
50¢
$6.9K
45¢
$591
40¢
$20.3K
35¢
$55
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity