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LoL: T1 vs Nongshim Red Force (BO1) - KeSPA Cup Group Stage

● quote 445 min ago
Sports→Closes: about 5 hoursLiquidity: $575.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.0MEvent: LoL: T1 vs Nongshim Red Force (BO1) - KeSPA Cup Group Stage
0.1¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly4Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 48%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:300 trades$39.1K trackedsource coverage 4%BUY/SELL known 93%
tape 492 min agoofficial metadata 443 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYT1 (YES)$10.5K@ 74¢·0xe907…cff6

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$50
6h
+$18.4K
tracked
$39.1K

1 verified profitable wallet: +$118 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 48% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 445 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 492 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 443 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-07-27 16:15 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL match between T1 and Nongshim Red Force in the KeSPA Cup Group Stage, initially scheduled for July 27 at 5:45AM ET. This market will resolve to "T1" if T1 win the match against Nongshim Red Force. This market will resolve to "Nongshim Red Force" if Nongshim Red Force win the match against T1. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: YES UP 6.5pp · near-book depth $48 → $95 · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$50
6h+$18.4K
24h+$18.4K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h67.3¢▼ below by 67.2pp
VWAP 7d67.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$1.0K
90¢
$405
85¢
$1.8K
80¢
$3.2K
75¢
$1.9K
70¢
$19.2K
65¢
$1.5K
60¢
$161
55¢
$271
50¢
$1.3K
45¢
$1.0K
40¢
$1.4K
35¢
$1.2K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$2.2K

VPOC = 70¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYT1 (YES)$10.5K@ 74.4¢0xe907…cff6🐋—about 11 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xe907…cff6T1$10.6K
BUY VWAP 74.2¢·9 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.