Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner

● quote 43 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $380.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $472.8KEvent: Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Spirit (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifier
1.0¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 40%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:136 trades$16.5K trackedsource coverage 3%BUY/SELL known 79%
tape 138 min agoofficial metadata 43 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYSpirit (NO)$2.4K@ 68¢·0xddc3…029c

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$3.5K
tracked
$16.5K

1 verified profitable wallet: −$987 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 40% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •BUY/SELL is known for 79% of tracked volume.
  • •Executable quote is 43 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 138 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-07-26 22:45 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round of 16 match between 100 Thieves and Spirit in the BLAST Bounty Qualifier, initially scheduled for July 26 at 1:30PM ET. This market will resolve to "100 Thieves" if 100 Thieves win Map 1 against Spirit. This market will resolve to "Spirit" if Spirit win Map 1 against 100 Thieves. If the match begins but is not completed, and Map 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Map 1. If Map 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x86df…d9023 linked markets · $4.6K gross
0x0063…2dd23 linked markets · $4.5K gross
0x3471…f17e2 linked markets · $4.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: YES DOWN 10.5pp · near-book depth $216 → $12 · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$0
6h−$3.5K
24h−$3.5K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current1.0¢
VWAP 24h36.5¢▼ below by 35.5pp
VWAP 7d36.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$703
60¢
$160
55¢
$252
50¢
$43
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$4.2K
30¢
$6.1K
25¢
$1.5K
20¢
$6
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$62

VPOC = 30¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Spirit (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifier
0.1¢$1.1Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner
100.0¢$443.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.