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Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs MOUZ (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifier

● quote 34s ago
UncategorizedCloses: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $438.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $368.6KEvent: Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs MOUZ (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifier
0.1¢
YES
100.0¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly99Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets30Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 66%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:102 trades$38.1K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 10%BUY/SELL known 98%
tape 30 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $6·2 wallets·$13 gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMOUZ (NO)$24.6K@ 82¢·0x30c7…ac3b

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$550
6h
−$4.7K
tracked
$38.1K

2 verified profitable wallets: −$6 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 66% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 30 minutes old.
  • •Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-07-25 23:25 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round of 16 match between FOKUS and MOUZ in the BLAST Bounty Qualifier, initially scheduled for July 25 at 1:30PM ET. This market will resolve to "FOKUS" if FOKUS win the match against MOUZ. This market will resolve to "MOUZ" if MOUZ win the match against FOKUS. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x0063…2dd22 linked markets · $3.6K gross
0x6e2c…787c3 linked markets · $254 gross
0x629d…756c2 linked markets · $179 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY MOUZ@ 80.0¢13h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -2.0pp
Latest book event: NO UP 4.0pp · near-book depth $2.5K → $2.3K · 3s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$550
6h−$4.7K
24h−$29.1K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h16.4¢▼ below by 16.3pp
VWAP 7d16.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$3.8K
15¢
$25.3K
10¢
$85
5¢
$7.0K
0¢
← now
$1.0K

VPOC = 15¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYMOUZ (NO)$24.6K@ 82.0¢0x30c7…ac3b🐋—about 15 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner
0.1¢$348.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner
0.1¢$303.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x30c7…ac3bMOUZ$24.6K
BUY VWAP 82.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.