Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Astralis (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifier

● quote 46 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: about 1 hourLiquidity: $226.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.3MEvent: Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Astralis (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifier
0.1¢
YES
100.0¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly41Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 63%
24h sample:285 trades$50.3K trackedsource coverage 4%BUY/SELL known 93%
tape 67 min agoofficial metadata 48 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAstralis (NO)$10.1K@ 56¢·0x30c7…ac3b

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$4.2K
tracked
$50.3K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 63% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 46 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 67 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 48 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-07-25 20:45 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round of 16 match between HOTU and Astralis in the BLAST Bounty Qualifier, initially scheduled for July 25 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "HOTU" if HOTU win the match against Astralis. This market will resolve to "Astralis" if Astralis win the match against HOTU. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 5h ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xb29f…45b52 linked markets · $5.6K gross
0x86df…d9022 linked markets · $2.1K gross
0x0063…2dd22 linked markets · $2.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: YES UP 6.5pp · near-book depth $215$100 · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$0
6h$4.2K
24h$14.0K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h42.9¢▼ below by 42.9pp
VWAP 7d42.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$842
70¢
$563
65¢
$285
60¢
$3.6K
55¢
$4.7K
50¢
$360
45¢
$1.3K
40¢
$25.6K
35¢
$4.1K
30¢
$524
25¢
$352
20¢
$30
15¢
$59
10¢
$309
5¢
$2.9K
0¢
← now
$1.3K

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYAstralis (NO)$10.1K@ 56.0¢0x30c7…ac3b🐋about 16 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x30c7…ac3bAstralis$10.1K
BUY VWAP 56.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.