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Estoril Open: Alexander Blockx vs Luciano Darderi

● quote just now
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $287.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $560.5KEvent: Estoril Open: Alexander Blockx vs Luciano Darderi
14.5¢
YES
85.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection4Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets61Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority57Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 67%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:68 trades$46.1K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 8%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 7 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$67·3 wallets·$111 gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYLuciano Darderi (NO)$40.7K@ 63¢·0xc430…1ebf

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW NO SETUP
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$1.7K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$1.7K
6h
−$42.2K
tracked
$46.1K

3 verified profitable wallets: +$67 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 67% · priority 57

Since latest position change: +7.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-01 18:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Alexander Blockx and Luciano Darderi in the Estoril Open, originally scheduled for July 25, 2026 at 2:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alexander Blockx' if Alexander Blockx advances against Luciano Darderi. This market will resolve to 'Luciano Darderi' if Luciano Darderi advances against Alexander Blockx. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

POSITION CHANGEBUY Luciano Darderi@ 79.0¢39m ago
15m INVALIDATED -37.0pp
ANTI CHASEBUY Luciano Darderi42m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Luciano Darderi@ 63.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED +2.0pp
Latest book event: YES DOWN 2.5pp · near-book depth $31.0K → $2 · 23s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$1.7K
6h−$42.2K
24h−$42.2K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current14.5¢
VWAP 24h38.1¢▼ below by 23.6pp
VWAP 7d38.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$6
55¢
$2.7K
50¢
$1
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$42.5K
30¢
$455
25¢
$80
20¢
$288
15¢
$0
10¢
← now
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYLuciano Darderi (NO)$40.7K@ 62.8¢0xc430…1ebf🐋—about 1 hour ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xc430…1ebfLuciano Darderi$40.7K
BUY VWAP 62.8¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.