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Segovia: Matteo Martineau vs Oliver Crawford

● quote just now
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $300.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $234.8KEvent: Segovia: Matteo Martineau vs Oliver Crawford
37.5¢
YES
62.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection2Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 68%
24h sample:68 trades$31.5K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 13%BUY/SELL known 99%
tape 8 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYOliver Crawford (NO)$18.8K@ 75¢·0xcf9d…8d0d

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$564
6h
−$28.6K
tracked
$31.5K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 68% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +27.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable BUY price moved 27.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-01 17:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Matteo Martineau and Oliver Crawford in the Segovia, originally scheduled for July 25, 2026 at 1:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Matteo Martineau' if Matteo Martineau advances against Oliver Crawford. This market will resolve to 'Oliver Crawford' if Oliver Crawford advances against Matteo Martineau. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Oliver Crawford1h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Oliver Crawford@ 36.0¢1h ago
15m CONFIRMED +3.0pp1h INVALIDATED -12.0pp
Latest book event: NO UP 5.5pp · near-book depth $385 → $35.4K · 2s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$564
6h−$28.6K
24h−$28.6K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current37.5¢
VWAP 24h29.1¢▲ above by 8.4pp
VWAP 7d29.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$239
70¢
$509
65¢
$57
60¢
$411
55¢
$19
50¢
$0
45¢
$146
40¢
$114
35¢
← now
$663
30¢
$10.4K
25¢
$18.8K
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 25¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYOliver Crawford (NO)$10.3K@ 69.0¢0xcf9d…8d0d🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYOliver Crawford (NO)$18.8K@ 75.0¢0xcf9d…8d0d🐋—about 2 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xcf9d…8d0dOliver Crawford$29.1K
BUY VWAP 72.8¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.