Estoril Open: Luca Van Assche vs Hugo Gaston

● quote 76 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $172.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $478.6KEvent: Estoril Open: Luca Van Assche vs Hugo Gaston
97.3¢
YES
2.7¢
NO
0.2¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets16Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution53Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 24%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:63 trades$36.5K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 8%BUY/SELL known 15%
tape 83 min agoofficial metadata 79 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYHugo Gaston (NO)$3.5K@ 38¢·Sportbetting76

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$29
6h
−$4.1K
tracked
$36.5K

1 verified profitable wallet: +$248 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.2¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 24% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • BUY/SELL is known for 15% of tracked volume.
  • Executable quote is 76 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 83 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-01 10:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Luca Van Assche and Hugo Gaston in the Estoril Open, originally scheduled for July 25, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Luca Van Assche' if Luca Van Assche advances against Hugo Gaston. This market will resolve to 'Hugo Gaston' if Hugo Gaston advances against Luca Van Assche. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: YES UP 5.9pp · near-book depth $2.6K$998 · 45s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$29
6h$4.1K
24h$4.1K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current97.3¢
VWAP 24h67.8¢▲ above by 29.5pp
VWAP 7d67.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$394
90¢
$155
85¢
$7
80¢
$0
75¢
$590
70¢
$254
65¢
$61
60¢
$3.9K
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity