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San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5

● quote 7046 min ago
Sports→Closes: 5 daysLiquidity: $713.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $209.8KEvent: San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins
30.0¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection8Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 55%
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYOver (YES)$21.3K@ 55¢·0x5e94…5ba1

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$3.9K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$3.9K
6h
+$7.9K
tracked
$45.7K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 55% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Only 0 tracked trades / 22 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Executable quote is 7046 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 7088 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 7042 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-07-24 23:10 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the San Diego Padres and Miami Marlins, scheduled for July 24 at 7:10 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if the San Diego Padres and Miami Marlins combine to score 9 or more runs in this game. If the combined total is less than 9, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x5e94…5ba12 linked markets · $48.0K gross
mooseborzoi2 linked markets · $80 gross
0x4318…9a942 linked markets · $72 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Under@ 46.0¢5d ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Over@ 55.0¢5d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$3.9K
6h+$7.9K
24h+$13.0K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current30.0¢
VWAP 24h52.9¢▼ below by 22.9pp
VWAP 7d52.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$20.4K
50¢
$21.3K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
← now
$4.0K
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYUnder (NO)$16.2K@ 45.0¢0xd696…8a49🐋—5 days ago
BUYOver (YES)$21.3K@ 54.9¢0x5e94…5ba1🐋—5 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x5e94…5ba1Over$21.3K
BUY VWAP 54.9¢·1 fill
0xd696…8a49Under$16.2K
BUY VWAP 45.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.