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Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Heroic (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries European Qualifier Group B

● quote 52s ago
UncategorizedCloses: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $498.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $212.5KEvent: Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Heroic (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries European Qualifier Group B
0.1¢
YES
100.0¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly1Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 49%
24h sample:45 trades$12.1K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 6%BUY/SELL known 96%
tape 40 min agoofficial metadata 31s ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAstralis (YES)$10.1K@ 53¢·0x79ae…9a4a

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$5
6h
+$10.5K
tracked
$12.1K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 49% · priority 0

Since latest market sweep: +54.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 40 minutes old.
  • •Less than 3h remains; resolution risk is elevated.
  • •Rules, deadline or market status changed recently; re-read the current definition.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-07-24 22:15 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Decider match between Astralis and Heroic in the StarLadder StarSeries European Qualifier Group B, initially scheduled for July 24 at 12:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Astralis" if Astralis win the match against Heroic. This market will resolve to "Heroic" if Heroic win the match against Astralis. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 3h ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xed44…4f762 linked markets · $207 gross
0x629d…756c2 linked markets · $171 gross
0x4ebc…a33d2 linked markets · $130 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

MARKET SWEEPSELL YES@ 54.0¢3h ago
15m CONFIRMED +13.0pp1h CONFIRMED +31.0pp
Latest book event: YES DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $396 → $313 · 3s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$5
6h+$10.5K
24h+$10.5K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h48.5¢▼ below by 48.5pp
VWAP 7d48.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$28
50¢
$10.1K
45¢
$205
40¢
$3
35¢
$0
30¢
$66
25¢
$139
20¢
$232
15¢
$31
10¢
$319
5¢
$12
0¢
← now
$461

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYAstralis (YES)$10.1K@ 53.0¢0x79ae…9a4a🐋—about 4 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Heroic - Map 2 Winner
0.1¢$171.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x79ae…9a4aAstralis$10.1K
BUY VWAP 53.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.