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Winnipeg: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Duncan Chan

● quote 4450 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 4 daysLiquidity: $167.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $324.1KEvent: Winnipeg: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Duncan Chan
99.9¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 33%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYDuncan Chan (NO)$10.5K@ 42¢·0x5f65…2036

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — MARKET STATUS RISK
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$190
6h
−$5.4K
tracked
$29.7K

1 verified profitable wallet: +$6 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 33% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Only 0 tracked trades / 32 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •BUY/SELL is known for 61% of tracked volume.
  • •Executable quote is 4450 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-07-30 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Shintaro Mochizuki and Duncan Chan in the Winnipeg, originally scheduled for July 23, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Shintaro Mochizuki' if Shintaro Mochizuki advances against Duncan Chan. This market will resolve to 'Duncan Chan' if Duncan Chan advances against Shintaro Mochizuki. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 2d ago

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$190
6h−$5.4K
24h−$5.4K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h58.4¢▲ above by 41.5pp
VWAP 7d58.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$50
90¢
$567
85¢
$37
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$776
65¢
$0
60¢
$100
55¢
$15.9K
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$142
30¢
$2
25¢
$0
20¢
$10
15¢
$482
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYDuncan Chan (NO)$10.5K@ 42.0¢0x5f65…2036🐋—3 days ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x5f65…2036Duncan Chan$10.5K
BUY VWAP 42.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.