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Segovia: Alejo Sanchez Quilez vs Oliver Crawford

● quote 1659 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 4 daysLiquidity: $153.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $103.1KEvent: Segovia: Alejo Sanchez Quilez vs Oliver Crawford
0.1¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly40Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 59%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:6 trades$36.9K tracked33% 🐋source coverage 36%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 1690 min agoofficial metadata 1662 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLOliver Crawford (NO)$18.6K@ 100¢·0x5bc6…eff4

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$272
6h
+$272
tracked
$36.9K

1 verified profitable wallet: −$142 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 59% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 1659 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 1690 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 1662 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Unknown
Deadline
2026-07-29 08:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market

Resolution wording is unavailable. Treat this as missing decision evidence.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.climax

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$272
6h+$272
24h+$272

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h1.8¢▼ below by 1.7pp
VWAP 7d1.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$178
10¢
$0
5¢
$142
0¢
← now
$36.6K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLOliver Crawford (NO)$18.6K@ 99.9¢0x5bc6…eff4🐋—1 day ago
BUYOliver Crawford (NO)$18.0K@ 96.7¢0x5bc6…eff4🐋—1 day ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x5bc6…eff4Oliver Crawford$18.0K
BUY VWAP 96.7¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.