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Estoril Open: Pedro Martinez vs Luciano Darderi

● quote 27 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $231.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $442.4KEvent: Estoril Open: Pedro Martinez vs Luciano Darderi
0.1¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection31Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 68%💡 1 smartVerified directional wallets: positive measured PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:42 trades$49.7K tracked7% 🐋source coverage 11%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 47 min agoofficial metadata 32 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLLuciano Darderi (NO)$17.0K@ 100¢·0xc1a9…e2db

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$15.6K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$15.6K
6h
+$17
tracked
$49.7K

1 verified profitable wallet: −$1.1K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 68% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 27 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 47 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 32 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$15.6K
6h+$17
24h−$14.5K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h14.3¢▼ below by 14.2pp
VWAP 7d14.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$14.6K
20¢
$12.8K
15¢
$151
10¢
$155
5¢
$3.1K
0¢
← now
$18.7K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLLuciano Darderi (NO)$17.0K@ 99.9¢0xc1a9…e2db🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYLuciano Darderi (NO)$12.8K@ 75.7¢0xc1a9…e2db🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYLuciano Darderi (NO)$14.5K@ 75.0¢
SineNooneEI0x3833…33d1
🐋—about 11 hours ago
Verified directional wallets · 7d
swisstonyNO$1.1K signed