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Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs OG (+1.5)

● quote 12s ago
UncategorizedCloses: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $270Official 24h Vol: $151.4KEvent: Counter-Strike: Spirit vs OG (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifier
31.0¢
YES
47.0¢
NO
36.0¢
Spread
anomaly1Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution2Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 67%
24h sample:7 trades$14.3K tracked14% 🐋source coverage 9%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 24 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYSpirit (YES)$14.2K@ 73¢·0x6902…b4ca

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$3
6h
+$14.1K
tracked
$14.3K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
36.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 67% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 24 minutes old.
  • •Spread is 36.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.
  • •Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus independent-wallet confirmation.

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$3
6h+$14.1K
24h+$14.1K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current31.0¢
VWAP 24h72.8¢▼ below by 41.8pp
VWAP 7d72.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$3
70¢
$14.3K
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
← now
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 70¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYSpirit (YES)$14.2K@ 72.8¢0x6902…b4ca🐋—about 4 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Counter-Strike: Spirit vs OG - Map 2 Winner
61.6¢$282.7Kpriority39Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs OG (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifier
92.3¢$161.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs OG - Map 1 Winner
100.0¢$105.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Verified directional wallets · 7d
No smart wallet activity