Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?

● quote just now

Sports→Closes: 9 monthsLiquidity: $397.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $44.1KEvent: UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion

12.0¢

YES

88.0¢

2.0¢

Spread

anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution86Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 50%

24h sample:3 trades$11 trackedsource coverage 0%BUY/SELL known 100%

tape 841 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago

Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLYES$2.9K@ 12¢·0x1111…b8ba

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN

What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

tracked

$11

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?

2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 50% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence

•Tracked source coverage is only 0%.
•Observed tape is 841 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution

OPEN

Trading

Orders accepted

Deadline

2027-05-30 23:59 UTC

Event constraint

Mutually exclusive

Resolution source: Not supplied by the market

Outcome meaning

•If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship per the rules of UEFA Champions League (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to "No".

•If the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League season is cancelled, postponed after June 19, 2027, 11:59 PM ET or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other".

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship per the rules of UEFA Champions League (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to "No". If the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League season is cancelled, postponed after June 19, 2027, 11:59 PM ET or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA Champions League; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow

0x4626…d40b2 linked markets · $3.9K gross

0xce48…72402 linked markets · $179 gross

0x2865…b66d2 linked markets · $128 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes

Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.climax

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.

1hYES · $0

6hYES · $0

24hYES · $9

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.

Current12.0¢

VWAP 24h11.9¢▲ above by 0.1pp

VWAP 7d11.9¢

Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

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← now

$13.4K

5¢

0¢

VPOC = 10¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago

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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now

No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.