Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?

● quote 26 min ago
Tech→Closes: 4 daysLiquidity: $50.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $90.4KEvent: Largest Company end of July?
71.8¢
YES
28.2¢
NO
0.3¢
Spread
anomaly18Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution89Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 68%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:50 trades$9.4K trackedsource coverage 10%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 35 min agoofficial metadata 27 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$13.9K@ 88¢·0x8b4b…541b

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$125
6h
−$840
tracked
$9.4K

1 verified profitable wallet: −$13.9K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.3¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 68% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 26 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 35 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-07-31 23:59 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x4aba…9e7c2 linked markets · $1.8K gross
0xe907…cff62 linked markets · $413 gross
cigarettes2 linked markets · $413 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: NO UP 4.9pp · near-book depth $1.7K → $1.6K · 3s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$125
6h−$840
24h−$726

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current71.8¢
VWAP 24h64.3¢▲ above by 7.5pp
VWAP 7d33.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$160
75¢
$85
70¢
← now
$3.3K
65¢
$141
60¢
$0
55¢
$4.7K
50¢
$547
45¢
$215
40¢
$158
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$13.9K
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 10¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYNO$13.9K@ 88.0¢0x8b4b…541b🐋—4 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x8b4b…541bNo$13.9K
BUY VWAP 88.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.