U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?
Decision read
Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation
NO pressure: −$2.3K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.
3 verified profitable wallets: +$636 YES-equivalent over 7d.
Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.
Data confidence 66% · priority 0
Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.
- •Executable quote is 64 minutes old.
- •Observed tape is 78 minutes old.
- •Official market metadata is 64 minutes old.
- •Less than 16h remains; resolution risk is elevated.
The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.
Resolution & market truth
Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis
Read full resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (military, DEA, CIA, or any other agency) directly participate on the ground in an anti-cartel operation or conduct a kinetic strike directed against a cartel on foreign soil between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. U.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count. Only direct U.S. participation, confirmed by the U.S. Government or by an overwhelming consensus of reporting, will count. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government; however, an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used.
Evidence receipts
Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible
Price History
Signals Trend
Market Analytics
Signed Order Flow
Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.YES-equivalent VWAP
Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.Largest holders
YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d
VPOC = 80¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC
Observed net position building