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Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch?

● quote just now
Crypto→Token LaunchCloses: about 1 yearLiquidity: $28.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $88.0KEvent: Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

68.4¢
YES
31.6¢
NO
1.4¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution76Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 55%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:34 trades$19.2K trackedsource coverage 22%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 174 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES · $5.1K net·3 wallets·$5.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$36.0K@ 57¢·alphaalii

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$1.2K
tracked
$19.2K

3 verified profitable wallets: YES · $5.1K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.4¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 55% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 174 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2028-01-01 05:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://predict.fun/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

•"1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Predict.fun (https://predict.fun/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Predict.fun (https://predict.fun/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
SeniorLaghetto2 linked markets · $6.2K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 60.3¢2d ago
15m INVALIDATED -3.5pp1h INVALIDATED -3.5pp6h INVALIDATED -3.8pp24h CONFIRMED +8.7pp
LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 56.5¢4d ago
15m STALLED -2.5pp1h CONFIRMED +5.0pp6h CONFIRMED +5.4pp24h CONFIRMED +4.8pp
Latest book event: YES UP 7.4pp · near-book depth $1.8K → $2.2K · 39s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hNO · $1.2K
24hYES · $3.1K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current68.4¢
VWAP 24h71.87¢▼ below by 3.5pp
VWAP 7d60.26¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$1.5K
85¢
$0
80¢
$2.7K
75¢
$0
70¢
$8.8K
65¢
← now
$2.5K
60¢
$7.9K
55¢
$94.3K
50¢
$1.4K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$3.2K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYYES$36.0K@ 56.98¢
alphaalii0x2f28…ba03
🐋—1 day ago
BUYYES$30.0K@ 58.46¢
ruyi3310x3493…cd58
🐋—4 days ago
BUYNO$10.2K@ 42.27¢
sdiff1230xd352…4ad6
🐋—4 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

alphaaliiYes$36.0K
BUY VWAP 56.98¢·1 fill
ruyi331Yes$30.0K
BUY VWAP 58.46¢·1 fill
sdiff123No$12.2K
BUY VWAP 41.98¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.