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Will the Democratic Party win the NC-13 House seat?

● quote just now
Politics→ElectionsCloses: 3 daysLiquidity: $161.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $145.3KEvent: NC-13 House Election Winner

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

41.5¢
YES
58.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 58%💡 9 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:10 trades$44.8K tracked20% 🐋source coverage 31%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 277 min agoofficial metadata 58s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES · $52.9K net·9 wallets(1🐋)·$64.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$22.6K@ 39¢·aenews2

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$10
tracked
$44.8K

9 verified profitable wallets: YES · $52.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 58% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 277 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-04 04:59 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: https://www.fec.gov/
Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 41.0¢23h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED +2.0pp
Latest book event: NO DOWN 2.5pp · near-book depth $40.6K → $10.4K · 84s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hNO · $10
24hYES · $39.5K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current41.5¢
VWAP 24h38.0¢▲ above by 3.5pp
VWAP 7d35.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
← now
$7.6K
35¢
$45.7K
30¢
$10.4K
25¢
$12.8K
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYYES$22.6K@ 38.65¢
aenews20x44c1…ebc1
🐋—about 23 hours ago
BUYYES$17.5K@ 36.28¢
aenews20x44c1…ebc1
🐋—about 23 hours ago
BUYYES$10.9K@ 25.94¢
aenews20x44c1…ebc1
🐋—7 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

aenews2Yes$55.2K
BUY VWAP 33.96¢·5 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.