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Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's US Open?

● quote 44s ago
Sports→Closes: 19 daysLiquidity: $198.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $127.7KEvent: 2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis)
0.1¢
YES
100.0¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 71%
24h sample:6 trades$109.2K tracked50% 🐋source coverage 86%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 97 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$41.0K@ 99¢·Stavenson

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$109.2K
tracked
$109.2K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 71% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 97 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-13 00:00 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.

•If the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after October 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

Read full resolution rules

The 2026 U.S. Open tennis tournament is scheduled for August 23 - September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after October 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Open (https://www.usopen.org/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xe542…0a374 linked markets · $11.5K gross
0xd8b4…77732 linked markets · $11.5K gross
roldy2 linked markets · $10.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.climax

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hNO · $109.2K
24hNO · $109.2K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h0.9¢▼ below by 0.9pp
VWAP 7d0.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$109.2K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNO$24.6K@ 99.8¢
one8tyfive0xcf6c…7e66
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYNO$41.0K@ 98.8¢
Stavenson0xf5fe…e23d
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYNO$19.5K@ 98.6¢
Stavenson0xf5fe…e23d
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

StavensonNo$60.5K
BUY VWAP 98.7¢·2 fills
one8tyfiveNo$31.8K
BUY VWAP 99.8¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.