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Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's US Open?

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 10 daysLiquidity: $44.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $129.5KEvent: 2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis)
22.3¢
YES
77.7¢
NO
1.2¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution85Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 59%💡 6 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:36 trades$46.8K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 36%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 94 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $24.6K net·6 wallets·$30.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$15.2K@ 79¢·omoi0i0

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$5.4K
tracked
$46.8K

6 verified profitable wallets: NO · $24.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.2¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 59% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 94 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-13 00:00 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.

•If the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after October 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

Read full resolution rules

The 2026 U.S. Open tennis tournament is scheduled for August 23 - September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after October 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Open (https://www.usopen.org/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
omoi0i03 linked markets · $283.3K gross
0F623 linked markets · $117.5K gross
StasPanda4 linked markets · $67.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 79.0¢24h ago
15m STALLED +2.6pp1h STALLED -1.1pp6h STALLED -0.2pp
LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 77.2¢2d ago
15m STALLED -1.2pp1h STALLED -0.5pp6h STALLED -1.3pp24h STALLED +1.9pp
Latest book event: YES UP 4.4pp · near-book depth $115 → $1.9K · 61s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hNO · $5.4K
24hNO · $40.9K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current22.3¢
VWAP 24h21.5¢▲ above by 0.8pp
VWAP 7d22.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$2.9K
20¢
← now
$110.4K
15¢
$8.1K
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 20¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNO$15.2K@ 78.8¢
omoi0i00xb3cf…0ebd
🐋—about 24 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

omoi0i0No$21.9K
BUY VWAP 78.3¢·2 fills
0F62No$18.6K
BUY VWAP 76.6¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.